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Bond Traders Say Rally Hinges on Jobs Data at Risk From Shutdown

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Pedestrians near the US Capitol in Washington, DC.

Photographer: Graeme Sloan/BloombergFacebookXLinkedInEmailLinkGiftGift this articleContact us:Provide news feedback or report an errorConfidential tip?Send a tip to our reportersSite feedback:Take our SurveyNew WindowFacebookXLinkedInEmailLinkGiftBy Ye Xie, Liz Capo McCormick, and Michael MacKenzieSeptember 28, 2025 at 7:00 PM UTCBookmarkSave

The big question for bond investors in the days ahead is whether the monthly US jobs report will shake their already-wavering conviction in another Federal Reserve interest-rate cut as soon as October.

Traders pared bets on additional Fed easing last week as officials voiced diverging views on monetary policy while some economic data was stronger than expected. There’s one major complication for financial markets, however: A potential federal-government shutdown starting Oct. 1 threatens to delay the release of key data, including Friday’s employment figures, one of the most closely scrutinized economic reports.

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