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Watch Copper for Next Big Market Breakout: 3-Minute MLIV

Bywpadmin

Sep 12, 2025

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  • 00:00In the session yesterday. Is this bond rally going to continue? Yeah, Well, interesting. I mean, you’ve got to start asking yourself, how much further can it go based on, you know, the outlook for the economy, the outlook for inflation and so on and so forth. I think it’s really interesting. Look at that five thirties curve. You know, how much lower can short term yields go? We were already pricing in something like six cuts by the end of next year. You know, will the Fed go any further than that? Would be quite aggressive. And if not, then perhaps, you know, that that sort of puts a little bit of a floor under the short term yields. And what we’ve seen, I think quite recently, interestingly, in the last couple of weeks is actually that the curve has started to flatten a little bit. The 30 year has been coming down a little bit further. There was pretty decent demand that the auction yesterday, I think that spread got 220 basis points. It’s now back around 100. We’ve got PIMCO saying, you know, maybe that trade has gone far enough for now. It has performed really strongly. And so, you know, perhaps the back end of the yield curve can perform a little bit stronger. But short term interest rates are going to stay a little bit more, more rigid from here. We’ve been debating why PIMCO doing that, which is an interesting debate. But we can’t go down that rabbit hole right now. At the moment. You’ve got a bit on bonds and you got a bit on equities. There’s a possibility of a US recession. The labour market is weakening. I understand. And and you’ve basically got bad news, been good news. The Fed’s going to cut rates. It’s all good. How long does that narrative get maintained for? So interesting, isn’t it? But it’s still going right all around the world. We’ve got Asia getting close to a record high. Have a look at the industrial metals. They’re performing well. About to have a bit of a breakout on copper, by the looks of things as well. Some interests going on there. So all projects that kind of economic strength and the people that I’m talking to around the city this week sort of saying, you know, there’s still lots of cash to be allocated. People want to buy US equities, they want to buy European equities, they want to buy emerging market equities. They want to buy it. They want to buy bonds, they want to buy liquid alternatives. They’re happy buying pretty much everything. You know, maybe, maybe not US Treasuries. You know, there’s there’s there’s cash to be deployed, basically, and excitement about the economy, which is kind of strange, given what you said about the outlook in the slowdown and stuff like that. But for now, you know, the music is still playing. People are still drinking from the punchbowl. It’s been drinking from the punchbowl. Right. I want to just mention that, you know, we’re having these all time highs in stocks happen alongside nearly all time highs. We’re looking at inflation adjusted gold. Surely that is telling you something to worry about. I think that tells you people are a bit worried about currencies in general and the debasement of currencies. And so people like gold as an alternative. Yes, it’s been performing very strongly that central banks are buying. There’s limited supply out there and people are using it as a little bit of a protection in case of anything else out there. And like I said, you know, there’s lots of money to deploy. People are liking to put it in all different ways. But if you think that the dollar is going to weaken like you think the domestic currency is going to weaken, then maybe you don’t want to hold that so much relative to gold. Okay, Paul, it’s been great to have you in London this week. Thank you very much for joining us. Any takeaways from London, apart from the fact that you can’t get anywhere, Can’t get anywhere? No. I was out and about yesterday in the evening. I’ve been surprised at how resilient the city is, how many people managed to make it in. And I think that speaks to, you know, at least in the city, you know, the people are happy. There was the streets were busy. The people a lot of bikes around. Yeah, yeah, yeah. So there’s that at least. I mean, obviously industrial production numbers, they didn’t look as rosy. You don’t see that. Don’t know. It’s Friday. We’re not going to pour any rain on this parade. Very nice to see you. Thank you very much indeed.

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Watch Copper for Next Big Market Breakout: 3-Minute MLIV

September 12th, 2025, 8:08 AM GMT+0000

Guy Johnson, Valerie Tytel and Paul Dobson break down today’s key themes for analysts and investors on “Bloomberg: The Opening Trade.” (Source: Bloomberg)

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By wpadmin

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